Thursday, 18 July 2024

More than 40% of supporters deserted under Sunak

  • The right-wing Reform Party is gaining ground on the Conservative Party in the UK.
  • Relative to last year, 59% of Conservatives now support Sunak.
  • After the PM’s October speech, the Tories have lost a net of 1.5 million votes.

The right-wing Reform Party is gaining ground on the Conservative Party in the UK, which is going through its most difficult period under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s direction. According to an opinion survey conducted by JL Partners, Sunak’s standing has declined relative to that of his brief predecessor Liz Truss, who last led the party to victory.

Relative to August and September of last year, when 74% and 63% of Conservatives backed Boris Johnson, 59% of Conservatives now support Sunak, according to an analysis by JL Partners.

UK’s Conservative Party

After the prime minister’s October speech at the Conservative Party conference, the Tories have lost a net of 1.5 million votes.

The Reform Party is gaining momentum; 15% of Conservatives who supported the party in the 2019 elections are now supporting it, costing the Tories 1.5 million votes overall.

Additionally, the survey showed that 18% of 2019 voters had switched to supporting Labour, while 5% of voters had switched to the centrist Liberal Democrats. The primary obstacle facing Sunak is immigration policy, as the top court in the UK declared last month that his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was illegal.

The “silver lining” of undecided voters—roughly 50% of whom are anticipated to vote Conservative on election day—is the only bright spot for Sunak. The Tories are in terrible shape, but this could cut into Labour’s lead.

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