- Bitcoin risks falling below $80K as a rising wedge pattern signals a potential breakdown.
- Short-term holders have incurred $7 billion in realized losses over the past month.
- Long-term holders continue to accumulate, signaling Bitcoin’s store-of-value potential.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing downward pressure as funding rates indicate a bearish market sentiment. A rising wedge pattern on the daily chart suggests a possible breakdown, with BTC struggling to maintain key support levels.
Despite short-term losses, Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. On-chain data shows that long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, signaling confidence in its future value.
Bitcoin’s Path Forward: Bearish Trends and Long-Term Optimism
Bitcoin’s price correction has placed significant financial pressure on short-term holders, who have realized over $7 billion in losses in the past month. Historical trends suggest that these losses, while severe, are still within the range of mid-cycle corrections seen in previous bull markets. However, short-term holders remain vulnerable to further downside if BTC fails to hold key support levels.
The macroeconomic landscape has further fueled bearish sentiment. Trump’s new tariff policies have rattled global markets, triggering a broader risk-off movement that has affected Bitcoin and other high-risk assets. Additionally, sustained capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have contributed to the recent price drop, with over $4.4 billion exiting these investment vehicles since February.
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s rising wedge pattern signals potential downside, with a breakdown possibly sending prices below the $80K mark. CryptoQuant data shows that buying momentum remains weak, reflected in the Bull Score Index plummeting to its lowest level in two years. Historically, market recoveries occur once this index rises above 60, indicating that Bitcoin may remain under pressure in the near term.
Despite these bearish signals, long-term Bitcoin holders continue to display resilience. Glassnode reports that the share of BTC supply held by long-term investors has risen to 63%, suggesting that many view the current correction as an opportunity to accumulate. This trend supports Bitcoin’s long-term narrative as a store of value, even amid short-term volatility.
While Bitcoin faces immediate bearish pressure, long-term holders’ accumulation suggests underlying confidence in its future. A recovery may depend on shifting macroeconomic conditions and renewed market momentum.
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing.” – Philip Fisher
