- Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of eastern and southern regions.
- Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in 2024 but lost much of the territory in early 2025.
- U.S. President Trump has signaled a shift in policy, halting military aid and calling Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders “unrealistic.”
After three years of war, Ukraine’s borders remain unstable, with continued fighting in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia has maintained control over key southern and eastern regions, while Ukraine has resisted advances near Kharkiv and attempted cross-border attacks into Russia.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted as well, with the U.S. reassessing its support for Ukraine. Trump’s approach to negotiations with Russia and his criticism of Zelenskyy have raised concerns among European allies.
War, Borders, and Bargaining: Ukraine’s Fight for Sovereignty
Despite losing ground in Kursk, Ukraine continues to push back against Russian advances in occupied regions. The battle for the Dnipro River has seen high-risk Russian offensives, but Ukraine remains firm in its defensive stance. The war has also taken an economic toll, with Ukrainian trade routes severely impacted by Russia’s control of the Black Sea.
Internationally, Ukraine’s position is weakening as the U.S. signals a reduction in military aid. European leaders are scrambling to form a stronger coalition in support of Ukraine, fearing that a peace deal under current conditions would favor Russian interests. Meanwhile, Russia has emphasized the need for external pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a settlement.
As the war drags on, Ukraine faces the difficult task of defending its remaining territories while navigating diplomatic challenges. Zelenskyy has expressed a willingness to negotiate territorial exchanges, but the specifics remain unclear. Both sides continue to seek leverage, making a swift resolution unlikely.
With Russia’s expansionist ambitions and Ukraine’s resilience, the conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution. The geopolitical consequences extend beyond the battlefield, affecting alliances, global security, and trade dynamics. The war’s outcome will reshape Eastern Europe’s power structure for years to come.
“Borders are not only lines on a map; they are battlefields of identity, politics, and power.”
