- Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 1.5% chance of impacting Earth in December 2032.
- The predicted risk corridor includes the eastern Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.
- Scientists expect impact probability to change with further observations.
NASA initially reported a record-high 3.1% impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock measuring between 40 and 100 meters wide. The updated risk assessment now stands at 1.5%, providing some relief, though the asteroid remains under close observation.
While the UK is outside the current risk zone, the predicted impact corridor stretches across major regions, including South Asia. If an impact were to occur, it could cause significant regional destruction, with severe blast damage extending up to 50 km from the site.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Risk Drops, But Monitoring Continues
NASA has revised its projections for asteroid 2024 YR4, lowering the impact risk from 3.1% to 1.5%. The asteroid, which could be up to 100 meters wide, was first detected in December 2023. While this reduction is reassuring, astronomers emphasize that continued observations are necessary to refine predictions.
The impact corridor, as identified by the International Asteroid Warning Network, includes parts of the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. Though the UK is not within this zone, areas at risk could face substantial damage if an impact occurs.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s potential energy release, if it were to strike Earth, would be comparable to a small nuclear explosion. Such an event could cause widespread destruction, particularly in densely populated regions. However, the likelihood of impact is still low, and space agencies are monitoring the asteroid’s path closely.
There is also a minor 0.8% chance that the asteroid could hit the moon instead of Earth. While this would not pose a direct threat, it highlights the need for further study of near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. Future tracking and data analysis will determine if the risk continues to decrease.
Although the probability of impact has decreased, asteroid 2024 YR4 remains under close observation. As scientists gather more data, future predictions may further adjust, reinforcing the importance of global asteroid monitoring efforts.
“The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn’t have a space program. And if we don’t have a space program, we’ll go extinct too.” — Larry Niven
