- Rising cost of living impacts voter sentiment globally.
- Far-right movements gain traction amid economic discontent.
- Geopolitical tensions influence defense and security-focused elections.
Economic hardships are significantly influencing this year’s elections, with voters worldwide feeling the pinch of rising living costs. In countries like India and the U.S., dissatisfaction with economic conditions is leading to a decline in support for incumbent leaders.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are playing a crucial role in election narratives, particularly in regions close to conflict zones. Finland and Lithuania have seen elections heavily focused on defense and security issues, primarily due to concerns over Russia.
Elections 2024: Economic Woes and Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Political Landscapes
The cost of living crisis is a significant driver in the 2024 elections, with many incumbent governments facing backlash due to rising prices of essentials. In the U.K., the ruling Conservatives have suffered severe losses, while in the U.S., voters are critical of President Biden’s economic management despite favorable economic indicators. This economic discontent is also visible in Africa, where South Africa’s ANC lost its majority, and Ghana’s election is expected to be influenced by similar issues.
Environmental policies are another contentious topic, with voters in Europe expressing concerns over the economic impact of green initiatives. This has led to setbacks for ecologist parties and has prompted politicians to reconsider ambitious climate commitments. In the U.S., the potential shift in green policies is stark, with Trump advocating for continued fossil fuel use, which contrasts sharply with Biden’s green subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act.
Far-right movements are gaining momentum across the West, fueled by economic distress and populist rhetoric. In Portugal, the Chega party has quadrupled its parliamentary seats, while in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has become the largest single party in a hung parliament. Similar trends are observed in Austria, where the far-right Freedom Party is leading in polls ahead of the September election. In the U.S., Trump’s immigration policies and nationalist stance resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
Geopolitical issues are at the forefront of many election campaigns, especially in countries near conflict zones. Finland’s election saw a strong focus on NATO integration due to Russian threats, while Lithuania’s incumbents emphasized defense spending. Taiwan’s elections revolved around managing the delicate relationship with China. In the U.S., the divide over support for Israel and NATO highlights the deepening political rifts, with Trump and Biden presenting starkly different foreign policy visions.
The 2024 elections are poised to reshape global politics, driven by economic hardships, rising far-right movements, and geopolitical tensions. The outcomes will significantly impact international relations, economic policies, and societal trends.
“A number of pressure points could throw the global economy off track,” said Agustin Carstens, head of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).
