- The Coalition leads Labor 51.5% to 48.5% in two-party preferred polling.
- Gen Z and Millennials now outnumber Baby Boomers, potentially shifting voter trends.
- The Guardian’s poll averaging model highlights uncertainty in polling predictions.
The 2025 Australian federal election is shaping up to be a closely contested battle, with the latest Roy Morgan poll giving the Coalition a slight lead over Labor.
Beyond the major party contest, independents and smaller parties are seeing sustained support, continuing a trend from the last election.
Demographic Shifts and Party Swings: The Unpredictable 2025 Australian Election
The rise of younger voters, now surpassing Baby Boomers in numbers, is expected to play a defining role in the election. Many of these voters lean toward progressive policies, potentially benefiting Labor and the Greens. Meanwhile, the Coalition’s messaging continues to target traditional conservative strongholds.
Despite leading in the two-party preferred polls, the Coalition faces challenges in key swing seats where independent candidates are gaining traction. The steady decline of primary votes for both major parties suggests a growing preference for alternatives outside the traditional two-party system.
As election day nears, voter sentiment may shift due to policy announcements, economic conditions, and major political events. Historically, late-stage campaign momentum has significantly impacted final results, making this election highly unpredictable.
Pollsters continue refining their models, factoring in variables such as turnout rates, demographic changes, and regional variations. However, as seen in past elections, unforeseen developments can disrupt even the most sophisticated projections.
The 2025 Australian federal election is set to be one of the most unpredictable in decades, with shifting demographics, declining major party support, and growing independent influence reshaping the political landscape.
“Democracy is the art of thinking independently together.” – Alexander Meiklejohn
