Given the current bullishness seen from BTC, who can blame the bulls who laid most of their options at $24,500 and higher for the March 3 options expiry? On February 21, Bitcoin temporarily traded above $25,200, marking an increase of 18% over the previous eight days. Regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry has worsened, and despite the lack of meaningful measures stated, investors are nonetheless cautious and sensitive to statements made by authorities.

Investors had to reconsider their exposure to cryptocurrencies as a result of the macroeconomic and crypto regulatory environment’s harsher stance. Though their wagers are unlikely to succeed as the deadline draws near, bulls’ expectations for a $24,500 or higher options expiry on March 3 were virtually extinguished by Bitcoin’s price decrease.

Price of Bitcoin

Although there is $710 million in open interest for the March 3 options expiry, the actual amount will be less because bulls grew overconfident when Bitcoin traded above $25,000 on February 21.

The disparity between the $310 million put (sell) options and the $400 million call (buy) open interest is reflected in the 1.12 call-to-put ratio. But, in terms of active open interest, the predicted result is probably far lower.

• Bulls’ expectations for a $24,500 or higher options expiry on March 3 were virtually extinguished.
• There is $710 million in open interest for the March 3 options expiry.
• On March 3, bitcoin bulls need to get the price above $24,000 to lock in a potential $110 million profit.

Depending on the expiry price, different call (bull) and put (bear) instruments have different numbers of options contracts available on March 3. Based on the current price action, the four most likely scenarios are as follows: between $22,000 and $22,500, between $22,500 and $23,000, between $23,000 and $24,000, and between $24,000 and $25,000. The imbalance favouring either side determines the theoretical profit.

On March 3, bitcoin bulls need to get the price above $24,000 to lock in a potential $110 million profit. Data from a statement made by the Mortgage Bankers Association on March 1 could, however, tip the scales in Bitcoin’s favor.

The number of weekly mortgage applications submitted fell by 44% from the same time in 2022, reaching its lowest point in 28 years.

Bears have a high chance of pushing Bitcoin below $23,000 and making $85 million at the March 3 weekly options expiry due to the pressure from authorities and investors watching the upcoming Fed decision on March 22.

Yet, depending on how traditional markets respond to the negative mortgage application data, there may be hope for Bitcoin bulls.