- Nigeria hits 1.505 million bpd in June, surpassing OPEC’s 1.5 million quota.
- Oil prices dip as OPEC+ output increases and demand shows signs of slowing.
- Inflation and inventory surges in the US weigh further on global oil markets.
Nigeria’s crude oil production in June reached 1.505 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly exceeding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd.
Meanwhile, global oil prices experienced a downturn amid rising output from the broader OPEC+ alliance and signals of slowing demand. Brent crude slipped to $68.17 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark WTI dropped to $65.55.
Nigeria Hits Production Target, But Global Oil Market Struggles Under Pressure
Despite surpassing the OPEC quota, Nigeria continues to face structural hurdles in sustaining output. Years of oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream operations have hampered consistent performance. Although recent reforms and increased government oversight have shown progress, analysts caution that one-off gains are not sufficient to secure long-term energy stability or meet national budget expectations.
OPEC’s latest report indicated a group-wide production increase of 220,000 bpd in June, with Saudi Arabia contributing the most. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-OPEC producers like Russia, saw its output climb by 349,000 bpd. These figures are raising concerns about a looming supply surplus, especially with global demand growth forecast to remain modest. OPEC still projects a 2025 demand increase of 1.3 million bpd, mainly from emerging economies.
In Nigeria, private sector momentum weakened in June, as reflected in the drop in the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI from 52.7 in May to 51.6. The decline stemmed primarily from reduced manufacturing activity, with continued power supply disruptions, material shortages, and delayed payments affecting business confidence. With inflation still elevated and fiscal gaps widening, Nigeria’s broader economic health remains vulnerable despite a rebound in crude production.
Internationally, macroeconomic indicators continue to influence oil prices. A 0.3% monthly rise in U.S. consumer prices and a stronger-than-expected 2.7% annual inflation rate have subdued hopes of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar, in turn, has made oil costlier for other countries, reducing global consumption and adding to bearish market sentiment.
Nigeria’s production rebound offers a hopeful signal but remains overshadowed by larger global dynamics of oversupply and waning demand. Long-term gains will depend on structural reforms and a more stable energy policy.
“You can’t manage what you don’t measure.” – Peter Drucker
