According to a report, concerns about a potential US economic recession caused by a new banking crisis have returned, and the threat of an economic slowdown is once more beginning to affect the entire world.
According to the Economics Research Department of the Bank of Baroda, the rupee is most likely to stay range-bound in light of recent developments such as a weaker US Dollar Index, the local currency performing better than its Asian counterparts, and the anticipation of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
An Economic Slowdown
A relative indicator of the US dollar’s strength versus six significant currencies is the US Dollar Index (DXY). The Indian rupee has been erratic for the past twelve months and is predicted to trade in the 81.5-82.25/USD band over the next two weeks. The markets will now watch next week’s rate decision from the Fed and ECB.
According to experts, the declining foreign exchange reserves and the US Federal Reserve’s continued tightening of monetary policy were the causes of the currency’s depreciation. For greater and more consistent profits, investors frequently relocate to stable markets like the US.
- The threat of an economic slowdown is once more beginning to affect the entire world.
- The rupee is most likely to stay range-bound in light of recent developments.
- FDIC may take over the First Republic and other currencies have been strengthening against the dollar.
The FDIC may take over the First Republic, according to US officials, and other currencies have been strengthening against the dollar.
The US economy’s slower-than-expected expansion left investors on edge; the country’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the calendar year 2024 (Q1CY24) was measured at 1.1%, down from the previous quarter’s increase of 2.6%.
The most significant information in this text is that analysts have estimated that there is an 88% chance that the Fed would increase interest rates by 25 basis points and that most global currencies had gains versus the dollar.
In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates at its upcoming meeting, with markets predicting a rate increase of 25 basis points rather than 50. This is because there are contradicting economic signals, with the Eurozone recovering from recession and growing by 0.1% (every quarter) in Q1CY24, with gains recorded in France, Italy, and Spain.
The US GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), Jobless Claims, and Employment Cost Index are further significant data releases that are anticipated to support the case for a rate increase by the Fed as long as inflation pressure is persistently high.
