- India projected to export 24 million tonnes of rice in 2025-26, accounting for 40% of the global market.
- Record rice production and large stockpiles position India as a key player in global trade.
- Global rice prices may decline as India re-enters the market after lifting export restrictions.
India is expected to export 24 million tonnes of rice in the 2025-26 marketing year. This would corner nearly 40% of the global market share, according to the USDA.
The re-entry of Indian rice into the global market is anticipated to suppress rice prices. This will impact competitors like Thailand and Vietnam. While this may benefit importing nations, it could create challenges for rival exporters.
India Eyes Record Rice Exports as Global Trade Dynamics Shift
The USDA’s latest projections underscore India’s strategic positioning as a dominant force in the global rice market. With 24 million tonnes of rice expected to be exported in the 2025-26 marketing year, India is set to reclaim its role as the top rice exporter. The lifting of export restrictions in early 2025 has provided a significant boost to Indian traders. This allows them to capitalize on robust global demand.
India’s agricultural policy is now aligned with its long-term export strategy. The government’s focus on expanding rice exports aligns with its broader plan to double agricultural exports by 2030. This includes tapping into untapped markets in Africa and Southeast Asia, where demand for affordable rice varieties remains strong.
The timing of India’s export surge coincides with a global rice supply glut. According to the USDA, global rice production is expected to hit 543.6 million tonnes in 2025-26. Total supplies will exceed demand. This oversupply could further dampen prices, benefiting importers but challenging exporters reliant on premium pricing.
Despite the optimism, challenges remain. Indian exporters must navigate fluctuating global demand, currency volatility, and potential trade barriers in key markets. Moreover, climate-related risks could impact future rice yields, complicating efforts to sustain high export volumes.
India’s ambitious rice export target in 2025-26 underscores its strategic positioning as a global rice powerhouse. However, maintaining this lead will require adept management of supply, pricing, and market access.
“India’s rice exports not only bolster its trade balance but also reinforce its stature as a key player in global food security.” — USDA
