- The Texas crop’s 500,000-bale reduction is the primary cause of the decline.
- The US, Turkey, and Mexico all experienced reductions, offsetting Pakistan‘s 200,000-bale increase.
- The season-average farm price for upland cotton is still expected to be 77 cents per pound.
The global cotton balance sheet is impacted by the lower production and historic low mill use in the U.S. cotton forecasts for 2023–2024.
Additionally, mill use decreased by 150,000 bales, bringing the total to 1.9 million bales, the lowest since 1884. Ending stocks are expected to be 3.1 million bales, or 22% of disappearance, with 100,000 bales fewer than in November.
Cotton season
The season-average farm price for upland cotton is still expected to be 77 cents per pound. A 1.0 million bale decline in China‘s consumption accounts for the majority of the predicted 1.6 million bale decline in global cotton consumption, according to the global cotton balance sheet.
The United States, Turkey, and Mexico all experienced reductions, offsetting Pakistan’s 200,000-bale increase. Global trade is slightly declining, with China’s predicted higher imports almost offsetting declines in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Turkey.
This month, global ending stocks are expected to rise by 900,000 bales, with China’s projected increase of 1.5 million bales. 82.4 million bales are estimated to be in total worldwide stocks, which equates to 72% of use.
Trade adjustments and a significant change in the cotton landscape have not dampened the market’s resilience in the face of challenges. A key feature that highlights China’s increasing sway over the cotton market is the country’s sizeable contribution to consumption and ending stocks.
