- South Africa’s agriculture expected to grow by 3% in 2025, following a 4.8% contraction in 2024.
- Risks include extreme weather, trade barriers, and logistical inefficiencies in ports.
- Strong export performance, particularly in horticulture, expected to continue.
In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture sector is expected to recover, with a growth forecast of 3% following a tough 2024 marked by a 4.8% contraction.
However, challenges persist, such as the effects of extreme weather events, animal diseases, and trade barriers. South Africa’s ports have faced inefficiencies, leading to rising costs for exporters.
Agriculture in South Africa: Trade Growth, Risks, and Challenges
South Africa’s agricultural sector is set to recover in 2025, with a growth rate projected at 3%. This follows a tough year in 2024, when the sector contracted by 4.8%. The decline in 2024 was driven by several factors, including extreme weather conditions, high labor and feed costs, and the lingering effects of animal diseases. However, with favorable conditions like La Niña rainfall and stable electricity supply, there is optimism for a better performance this year.
The agriculture value chain is a significant contributor to the South African economy, making up over 14% of GDP when considering agroprocessing. Horticulture continues to shine as a major export sector, with pome fruit, berries, and grapes seeing strong demand globally, especially in Europe and Asia. The sector’s overall trade performance remains positive, with exports potentially surpassing $14 billion in 2024.
However, the sector faces considerable risks that could hinder growth. These include extreme weather events, logistical issues at South African ports, and trade protectionism in global markets. Geopolitical instability, particularly in the US and EU, could lead to disruptions in agricultural exports, especially for grains, oilseeds, and pork.
Within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), South Africa faces trade barriers, with some countries maintaining bans on its agricultural products. Addressing these barriers, improving port efficiency, and fostering regional trade relationships will be crucial for sustained growth. Emerging markets, particularly in BRICS, offer potential new avenues for trade, but South Africa must navigate these relationships carefully to avoid alienating existing partners.
South Africa’s agriculture sector faces numerous risks but remains resilient, with promising export growth and opportunities for deeper trade integration, especially in emerging markets.
“In the face of risks, South Africa’s agricultural exports continue to grow, but trade barriers and logistical inefficiencies remain ongoing challenges.”
