- Schools face financial strain due to rising special educational needs (SEND) costs and planned salary hikes.
- Pupil numbers are expected to fall, but savings will likely be offset by SEND spending increases.
- The IFS reports mainstream school funding per pupil grew by only 5% between 2019-2024 after SEND costs were accounted for.
Schools in England are facing a financial squeeze as rising special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision costs threaten to outstrip funding growth. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that SEND spending will grow by £2.3bn by 2027, putting additional strain on school budgets, especially as pupil numbers decline by 2% over the same period.
Further complicating the situation, a planned 2.8% increase in teacher pay starting in September 2025 will add to schools’ financial pressures. Despite an overall rise in school funding, mainstream school funding per pupil has only increased by 5% in real terms between 2019 and 2024 after factoring in SEND costs.
IFS Warns of School Budget Crisis Amid Rising SEND and Pay Demands
The IFS report highlights the financial challenge schools face with the increasing demand for SEND provision. The government projects SEND funding will grow by £2.3bn by 2027, further straining school budgets. This rise in SEND spending could prevent any potential savings from reduced pupil numbers, which are expected to fall by 2% over the next few years.
Teacher salary increases, particularly the planned 2.8% rise in 2025, add another layer of financial burden. The additional costs for pay increases are expected to exceed the funding growth, leaving schools with little room to maneuver. The IFS warns that without reforms to SEND provision, schools will find it challenging to maintain financial stability.
Despite an 11% increase in overall funding for schools between 2019 and 2024, the reality for mainstream schools has been more limited. After accounting for SEND funding, the actual increase in per-pupil funding was only 5% in real terms. This discrepancy is being felt by school leaders, who report budget constraints despite larger funding figures.
The National Education Union (NEU) has expressed concern over the inadequate funding for SEND support and pastoral care. General Secretary Daniel Kebede emphasized that the lack of sufficient funding has led to compromises in children’s education, urging the government to address these financial challenges head-on.
The growing costs associated with SEND provision and teacher salary hikes are creating a significant financial burden for schools, leaving them with limited options for managing their budgets. Urgent government intervention is needed to ensure adequate funding for both mainstream education and special needs.
“The spiraling costs of special educational needs provision seems likely to wipe out any opportunities for savings in the schools budget from falling pupil numbers.” — Luke Sibieta, IFS researcher.